Saturday, May 21

NIPH will remove the infection measures: – The longer the measures are retained, the longer the epidemic lasts.

FHI estimates that 3-4 million people can be infected with omicron this winter. But have you received the 3rd dose? Then it is better to be infected now than later, according to FHI.

On Wednesday, NIPH director Camilla Stoltenberg presented a new risk assessment of the pandemic. It will be of great importance for the infection measures in the future.

In a new risk assessment, FHI comes up with new scenarios for what the winter will be like. According to FHI, the winter wave could infect 3-4 million people. About 12,000–13,000 have to go to hospital.

But still, it is time to change course, according to FHI.

The measures should be removed quickly.

“The longer the measures are retained, the longer the epidemic lasts,” writes FHI.

Believes most measures can be scaled down

Although FHI assumes that we are facing very high infection and hospital numbers, it is advised that most measures can be scaled down.

“Most measures against the epidemic can now be gradually reduced over a short period of time without, in the longer term, giving a significantly increased disease burden,” writes FHI.

“The measures with the greatest burden of action for children and young people should be removed first.”

The reasons are as follows:

If the omikron wave is to be slowed down, very strong measures are required over a long period of time. But that will only shift the problems, according to the NIPH.

“Strong slowdown in the epidemic postpones the problem; it is in the long run difficult to avoid becoming infected “, writes FHI.

In addition, the vaccination program is practically complete.

The risk of becoming seriously ill with omicron is also far lower. Especially for the vaccinated.

In addition, the hospitals are prepared to treat several new corona patients. And those who are admitted have milder illness.

NIPH: Better to be infected now than later

Over two million people have received the third dose.

FHI goes surprisingly far in saying that it is better for them to be infected now, than later.

The reason is that they have the most protection now that the refreshment dose is fresh.

“Many people now have a fairly fresh refresher dose and very good protection against serious illness. For them, it is better to be infected now than later “, writes FHI.

The experience so far is also behind it, which has shown that the effect of the vaccines decreases over time.

– Soon back to normal everyday life

The fundamental change of course that FHI is now proposing is based on the fact that the government should henceforth handle the pandemic in a completely different way.

The most important principles for handling should be along the following lines, writes FHI:
• Society should return to normal everyday life as soon as possible.
• The epidemic should preferably be handled with good advice and living rules for the population, not with law and regulations.
• Soon, SARS-CoV-2 infection should no longer be defined as a generally contagious infectious disease in order to avoid some municipalities implementing strict measures.

A new wave peak is expected at the end of February

Two weeks ago, FHI thought that the wave peak would come at the turn of the month.

FHI now believes that this will happen at the end of February or the beginning of March.

«At the top of the wave in the last half of February or the first half of March, there may, depending on the level of measures, be 25 to 300 new admissions and between 40,000 and 125,000 new infected per. day », writes FHI.

“There can be 300 to 1000 concurrent inpatients and less than 175 concomitant patients on a respirator,” the risk assessment states.

The scenarios that closed Norway

On 13 December, NIPH presented a risk assessment that presented several horror scenarios. This was crucial for the government to introduce strict infection control measures.

“The omikron variant will already in December cause a wave of many sick, many hospitalizations, significant burden on the health service and significant burden on society, among other things through widespread sickness absence,” wrote NIPH.

In retrospect, FHI has said that this scenario was not realistic.

January 12th came a new one risk assessment from FHI. FHI then wrote that even though the government maintained the strict infection measures, there could be 500 and 2,500 patients in hospital at the turn of the month January-February.

Although several of the measures have been repealed, including red in upper secondary school and bar stops, there were 245 patients in hospitals on 26 January. About 40 percent were admitted for things other than corona.

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