Wednesday, May 18

NIPH: Most measures can now be gradually phased out

Two weeks ago, FHI said that we were facing a big winter wave, and that many hundreds of thousands of Norwegians would be infected in the coming months.

FHI expects to reach the top of the wave at the turn of the month January-February.

Can be stepped down

Even with intervention measures, FHI was aware that it would not be possible to put down this wave.

On Wednesday, the National Institute of Public Health published an updated risk assessment, as well as a new weekly report.

It appears that they believe that the vast majority of measures can now be gradually removed.

– Most measures against the epidemic can now be gradually reduced over a short period of time without, in the long run, giving a significantly increased disease burden. The measures with the greatest burden of action for children and young people should be removed first, writes FHI.

– Will continue to increase

They emphasize that the epidemic must still be monitored in Norway, and elsewhere in the world so that an unfortunate development or new variants can be detected early and possibly lay the groundwork for adjusting the measures if necessary.

– We estimate that the significant winter wave of the epidemic will continue to increase for a few weeks. Based on scenarios from modeling, we estimate that the winter wave could infect three to four million people, of which twelve to thirteen thousand must be hospitalized. The longer the measures are retained, the longer the epidemic lasts, the report states.

Sustained measures will not be able to stop the spread of infection, but reduce the peak of the wave, says FHI.

– Worse than the epidemic

FHI says that several factors now provide a basis for changing the handling.

– The burden of action is still significant. The measures cost a lot, restrict freedom and are in some ways and for some groups probably worse than the epidemic would be.

Furthermore, it is pointed out that strong slowing down of the epidemic postpones the problem into time; it is in the long run difficult to avoid becoming infected

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